Pemodelan Water Surface Height di Delta Mahakam Menggunakan Regresi Linear Berganda pada Data ICESat-2 ATL13 (Rgt 937)

Muamarul Fathir; Ni Made Rai Ratih Cahya Perbani

doi:10.59188/jurnalsostech.v6i8.32973

Authors

Muamarul Fathir Institut Teknologi Nasional Bandung
Ni Made Rai Ratih Cahya Perbani Institut Teknologi Nasional Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59188/jurnalsostech.v6i8.32973

Keywords:

ICESat-2, ATL13, water surface height, pasut laut, delta mahakam

Abstract

Pemantauan tinggi muka air (water surface height, WSH) di perairan delta dan pesisir memerlukan pengamatan yang menjangkau wilayah tanpa stasiun pasut. Altimetri satelit fotonik ICESat-2 melalui produk ATL13 menawarkan kemampuan tersebut, namun peubah mana yang benar-benar menentukan WSH pada produk ini belum banyak diteliti. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pola perilaku WSH menurut ruang dan waktu, menetapkan prediktor ATL13 yang signifikan, serta mengevaluasi kinerja model regresi linear berganda dalam memodelkan WSH. Data yang digunakan adalah 274.285 rekaman ATL13 Versi 7 pada lintasan RGT 937 sepanjang 277,50 km di perairan Delta Mahakam dan Selat Makassar, meliputi 25 siklus dari November 2018 sampai November 2025. Tinggi ortometrik ht_ortho dipilih sebagai peubah target karena bereferensi geoid. Penetapan prediktor dilakukan melalui empat tahap seleksi, yaitu penapisan kelengkapan data, uji signifikansi dan seleksi maju bertahap berbasis AIC, penapisan multikolinearitas dengan VIF, serta diagnostik nonlinear dengan distance correlation. Model yang digunakan adalah regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 95,07 persen keragaman WSH berasal dari perbedaan antarsiklus dan hanya 4,93 persen dari keragaman di dalam satu lintasan. Koreksi pasut laut merupakan prediktor terkuat dengan pangsa 71,690 persen perbaikan AIC dan 83,86 persen kepentingan menurut nilai SHAP, dengan koefisien 0,9395 yang mendekati perpindahan satu banding satu. Model regresi linear berganda memberikan RMSE 0,11981 m dan R² 0,94146, dan hasil ini hanya sahih untuk keadaan interpolasi pada lintasan yang diamati, bukan untuk lintasan baru. Implikasi penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model berbasis data ATL13 dapat digunakan untuk memperkirakan WSH di perairan Delta Mahakam, namun generalisasi ke lintasan atau siklus baru masih memerlukan pengembangan lebih lanjut.

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